Application of ARIMA and SVM combination model in prediction of COVID-19

OBJECTIVE: To establish a combination model based on differential autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA) and introduction of support vector machine (SVM) method so as to predict the incidence trend of COVID-19. METHODS: ARIMA model was employed to predict the linear part of data of daily increased confirmed cases and capture the linear change trend of time series data. SVM was employed to predict the non-linear change trends. The mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were compared between the two combination models so as to assess the prediction results. RESULTS: During fitting stage of the models, as compared with the single ARIMA model and SVM model, the MSE of the ARIMA-SVM combination model was 0.004 (the least) in prediction of COVID-19, the MAE 0.055, the MAPE 0.004. During the prediction stage of the models, the MSE, MAE and MAPE of the combination model were respectively 7.811, 2.730 and 0.764, which were also the least among the 3 models. CONCLUSION: The ARIMA-SVM combination model is more precise than the single ARIM or SVM in prediction of trend of COVID-19.

Investigation of PTSD during the coronavirus epidemic

Aim: We investigated to understand post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) during the coronavirus epidemic, and related influential factors. We hoped to provide more basis for targeted services to improve public psychological health care. Methods: From the psychological aid platform set up by the Wuhan Mental Health Center, we obtained online sample data of Chinese residents during the coronavirus epidemic. We used the PTSD examination scale as the study tool and analyzed the data with SPSS. Results: A total of 376 data was collected. The PTSD degree of the public was 45.93 +/- 17.32, the positive detection rate was 63.56%, and the PTSD level increased with fluctuation. Participants' gender, educational level, and location were the influential factors. Specifically, women, lower educational backgrounds, and people in Wuhan were more likely to have PTSD. Conclusions: The epidemic had a great impact on people's psychological status. Although the epidemic has basically been brought under control, PTSD levels have not declined. Therefore, it is necessary to provide timely psychological assistance for people in need, and help them adapt to life as soon as possible. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved)

Interaction of Insomnia and Somatization with Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder in Pregnant Women During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) has an adverse impact on the emotional health of prenatal maternal women and their offspring. During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, pregnant women are vulnerable to traumatic events and are prone to PTSD symptoms. The aim of the study was to explore the predictive effects of insomnia and somatization on PTSD in pregnant women by utilizing generalized additive model (GAM). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 1638 pregnant women from three local cities in China underwent online survey on sleep quality, somatization, and PTSD symptoms tested by the Insomnia Severity Index (ISI), the subscale somatization of Symptom Checklist-90 (SCL-90-S) and the Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5), respectively. RESULTS: Insomnia was positively correlated with PTSD symptoms in pregnant women (p = 1.79×10-5). Interestingly, insomnia and somatization showed a complex non-primary linear interaction in predicting PTSD (p = 2.00×10-16). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that insomnia is a prominent predictor of PTSD symptoms in pregnant women in the context of public emergencies. In addition, the effects of insomnia and somatization on PTSD symptoms are characterized by complex non-primary linear relationships.

Medical Morphology Training Using the Xuexi Tong Platform During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Development and Validation of a Web-Based Teaching Approach.

BACKGROUND: Histology and Embryology and Pathology are two important basic medical morphology courses for studying human histological structures under healthy and pathological conditions, respectively. There is a natural succession between the two courses. At the beginning of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic suddenly swept the world. During this unusual period, to ensure that medical students would understand and master basic medical knowledge and to lay a solid foundation for future medical bridge courses and professional courses, a web-based medical morphology teaching team, mainly including teachers of courses in Histology and Embryology and Pathology, was established. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to explore a new teaching mode of Histology and Embryology and Pathology courses during the COVID-19 pandemic and to illustrate its feasibility and acceptability. METHODS: From March to July 2020, our team selected clinical medicine undergraduate students who started their studies in 2018 and 2019 as recipients of web-based teaching. Meanwhile, nursing undergraduate students who started their studies in 2019 and 2020 were selected for traditional offline teaching as the control group. For the web-based teaching, our team used the Xuexi Tong platform as the major platform to realize a new "seven-in-one" teaching method (ie, videos, materials, chapter tests, interactions, homework, live broadcasts, and case analysis/discussion). This new teaching mode involved diverse web-based teaching methods and contents, including flipped classroom, screen-to-screen experimental teaching, a drawing competition, and a writing activity on the theme of "What I Know About COVID-19." When the teaching was about to end, a questionnaire was administered to obtain feedback regarding the teaching performance. In the meantime, the final written pathology examination results of the web-based teaching and traditional offline teaching groups were compared to examine the mastery of knowledge of the students. RESULTS: Using the Xuexi Tong platform as the major platform to conduct "seven-in-one" teaching is feasible and acceptable. With regard to the teaching performance of this new web-based teaching mode, students demonstrated a high degree of satisfaction, and the questionnaire showed that 71.3% or more of the students in different groups reported a greater degree of satisfaction or being very satisfied. In fact, more students achieved high scores (90-100) in the web-based learning group than in the offline learning control group (P=.02). Especially, the number of students with objective scores >60 in the web-based learning group was greater than that in the offline learning control group (P=.045). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that the web-based teaching mode was not inferior to the traditional offline teaching mode for medical morphology courses, proving the feasibility and acceptability of web-based teaching during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings lay a solid theoretical foundation for follow-up studies of medical students.

Recombinant Fc-fusion vaccine of RBD induced protection against SARS-CoV-2 in non-human primate and mice (preprint)

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) continues to infect people globally. The increased COVID-19 cases and no licensed vaccines highlight the need to develop safe and effective vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection. Multiple vaccines candidates are under pre-clinical or clinical trails with different strengths and weaknesses. Here we developed a pilot scale production of a recombinant subunit vaccine (RBD-Fc Vacc) with the Receptor Binding Domain of SARS-CoV-2 S protein fused with the Fc domain of human IgG1. RBD-Fc Vacc induced SARS-CoV-2 specific neutralizing antibodies in non-human primates and mice, and the antibodies induced in macaca fascicularis neutralized three divergent SARS-CoV2 strains, supporting broader neutralizing ability. Three times immunizations protected Macaca fascicularis (20ug or 40ug per dose) and mice (10ug or 20ug per dose) from SARS-CoV-2 infection respectively, including the protection against SARS-CoV-2 adapted virus MASCp6 which contains N501Y mutation, a key residue increasing binding affinity to human and murine ACE2. These data support clinical development of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and provide a promising strategy to prevent different stains of SARS-CoV-2 infection. RBD-Fc Vacc is currently being assessed in randomized controlled phase 1/II human clinical trails

Recombinant Fc-fusion vaccine of RBD induced protection against SARS-CoV-2 in non-human primate and mice (preprint)

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) continues to infect people globally. The increased COVID-19 cases and no licensed vaccines highlight the need to develop safe and effective vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection. Multiple vaccines candidates are under pre-clinical or clinical trails with different strengths and weaknesses. Here we developed a pilot scale production of a recombinant subunit vaccine (RBD-Fc Vacc) with the Receptor Binding Domain of SARS-CoV-2 S protein fused with the Fc domain of human IgG1. RBD-Fc Vacc induced SARS-CoV-2 specific neutralizing antibodies in non-human primates and human ACE2 transgenic mice. The antibodies induced in macaca fascicularis neutralized three divergent SARS-CoV2 strains, suggesting a broader neutralizing ability. Three times immunizations protected Macaca fascicularis (20ug or 40ug per dose) and mice (10ug or 20ug per dose) from SARS-CoV-2 infection respectively. These data support clinical development of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines for humans. RBD-Fc Vacc is currently being assessed in randomized controlled phase 1/II human clinical trails

Multi-parameter formulation development for an HIV-vaccine protein with direct validation of epitope binding integrity and stoichiometry (preprint)

Vaccines are on the front line-of-defense against infectious diseases, ranging from threats we are familiar with, including polio, tuberculosis, or HIV, to novel and emerging threats such as SARS-CoV-2. Successful development of new protein-based vaccines requires sophisticated and efficient development of storage and formulation conditions. Here we demonstrate the combined power of 2bind's sophisticated buffer matrix FORMOscreen(R) and NanoTemper Technologies' novel Prometheus Panta high-throughput Dynamic Light Scattering/Nano Differential Scanning Fluorimetry instrument. We show that this combination can comprehensively improve critical biophysical parameters for the HIV-1 vaccine BG505-SOSIP and find the optimal formulation condition with unmatched efficiency.

Remdesivir Metabolite GS-441524 Efficiently Inhibits SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Mouse Model (preprint)

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly spreads across worldwide and becomes a global pandemic. Remdesivir is the only COVID-19 treatment approved by U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA); however, its effectiveness is still under questioning as raised by the results of a large WHO Solidarity Trial. Herein, we report that the parent nucleotide of remdesivir, GS-441524, potently inhibits the replication of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Vero E6 and other cells. It exhibits good plasma distribution and longer half-life (t1/2=4.8h) in rat PK study. GS-441524 is highly efficacious against SARS-CoV-2 in AAV-hACE2 transduced mice and murine hepatitis virus (MHV) in mice, reducing the viral titers in CoV-attacked organs, without noticeable toxicity. Given that GS-441524 was the predominant metabolite of remdesivir in the plasma, the anti-COVID-19 effect of remdesivir may partly come from the effect of GS-441524. Our results also supported that GS-441524 as a promising and inexpensive drug candidate in the treatment of COVID-19 and future emerging CoVs diseases.